Modeling disease transmission and related stress on public health infrastructure

Scientists are developing pandemic modeling capabilities to forecast disease transmission, stress on public health infrastructure, and economic outlook for the nation

Modeling for transmission and related stress on public health infrastructure
Modeling for transmission and related stress on public health infrastructure

Summary

As part of the National Virtual Biotechnology Laboratory (NVBL), a US Department of Energy consortium dedicated to COVID-19 response, scientists are developing pandemic modeling capabilities to forecast disease transmission, stress on public health infrastructure, and economic outlook for the nation, all of which can inform decision makers. The NVBL pandemic models link epidemiological (disease tracing) models and resource models to predict the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as stay-at-home orders and travel restrictions, across different scenarios. Using detailed public data on COVID-19 incidence and response from the City of Chicago and the State of New Mexico that will be generalized for other geographic regions, NVBL is developing near-term models of 1 to 2 weeks and long-term models of weeks to months. While these models can be immediately applied to the COVID-19 pandemic, they will also serve as a resource for future disease outbreaks.